How Accurate Is the Farmer's Almanac?

What Is the Farmer's Almanac and What Is It Used for?

The Farmer's Almanac is used by many in the agricultural industry as a guide for weather predictions, astronomical and astrological information, recipes, and planting schedules for crops. The Old Farmer’s Almanac was first released in 1793, and the next edition started in 1818. Many other almanacs have been released before and after those publications, but the unique weather prediction system popularized by founder Robert B. Thomas proved over time to be more accurate and useful than the competition.

The Farmer's Almanac uses a mathematical and astronomical formula, which is said to be a secret. This formula was developed by David Young, the Almanac's first editor. This secret prediction method involves the observation of sunspots, tidal patterns, moon phases, and more. To this day, the formula has been revealed only to the publication's editors.

No almanacs that predated the Old Farmer's Almanac matched the accuracy of Young's method. This fact, combined with a winning addition of recipes, folk wisdom, and farming tips and tricks, made the Farmer's Almanac the new favorite and put other publications out of business.

How Accurate Is the Farmer's Almanac?

Since the Almanac's forecasting methods are sealed away in a black box at the Farmer’s Almanac headquarters in Dublin, New Hampshire, it's impossible for other meteorologists to evaluate its methodology or effectiveness. The almanac claims an accuracy rate of 80%, but some experts speculate that the Almanac's accuracy is likely closer to half of this declaration. There have been quite a few notable Almanac prediction blunders in the past.

The way in which the Farmer's Almanac staff came up with their 80% accuracy claim doesn't make it seem especially credible for many consumers. This percentage is based on the Almanac team's ability to predict a change in what's considered normal precipitation and temperature in a specific city for a given period. 

These predictions are made for various cities in different regions. Critics claim there is simply not enough legitimate evidence to validate the Almanac's accuracy and that it is merely pseudoscience. 

Can the Accuracy Claim of the Farmer's Almanac Be Trusted?

Since the makers of the Farmer's Almanac refuse to share the secret scientific techniques behind its predictions, the case of the publication's accuracy isn't helped in the eyes of many. Instead, the Almanac makes vague, broad claims, which meteorologists say are impossible to measure empirically. 

For example, the Farmer's Almanac might predict that three months out of the year will be sunny and cool, with no indications of the actual temperatures or how often it will be cloudy as opposed to sunny during that period. As such, the Farmer's Almanac can be perceived as more of a general guidepost in terms of its weather predictions. The lack of specific information makes its accuracy hard to prove or disprove. 

Possible Evidence of the Old Farmer's Almanac's Accuracy Through History

The Old Farmer's Almanac has made some accurate weather predictions throughout history, which contributes to it having supporters to this day. Here are just a few examples of times when the Old Farmer's Almanac was almost eerily accurate:

• 1956's Hurricane Carol: The 1956 edition of the Almanac predicted a humongous hurricane for the Northeast. This proved true when Hurricane Carol hit New England and became one of the worst tropical storms in history.
• 1988's Winter Olympics Snowstorm: In 1988, the Almanac accurately predicted a mild winter. However, it also claimed there would be plenty of snowfall for the Winter Olympics in Calgary. Even though the weeks leading up to the Olympics were mild and dry, a huge snowfall landed just in time for the Games.
• 1995's Rare Warm Winter: Regis and Kathy Lee discussed the Almanac on their show in 1995 because of an uncanny prediction that January would bring two very warm weeks to New York. The Almanac even coined the term "Juneuary," to describe the unusual warm spell. New York did, indeed, see two weeks of balmy 70-degree weather.

For some, these examples are all the proof necessary to demonstrate the accuracy and legitimacy of the Old Farmer's Almanac. However, others argue that what could seem like a few major wins for the publication over time are not nearly enough to convince them. 

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The Final Verdict

While the Farmer's Almanac and Old Farmer's Almanac may still have their share of supporters, there's just not enough scientific evidence of their accuracy for many consumers. Many scientists, too, dismiss the Almanac as a credible source. Experts state that using lunar motion and solar activity to make weather predictions, as the Almanac does, are ultimately just not reliable or accurate methods.